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IBM Research's Global Technology Outlook Trends in Information Technology
Dr. Walter Hehl
IBM Research Laboratory Zurich (1.2A)
Abstract:
IBM's Research Division is one of the largest and most successful industrial research organizations; in the area of Information Technology certainly the largest and - for example measured in the track record of past and current flow of patent disclosures - the most successful one.
The talk depicts the major trends in IT as observed and predicted by IBM Research and as seen in the year 2002. The presentation is structured in three parts "bottom-up" - from Technology over Infrastructure to Business Value - and uses for argumentation IBM and non-IBM technologies, as well as some selected IBM Research projects.
1. Basic Technologies ("Faster, Cheaper, Better") refers to an acceleration of technical developments of all base technologies (processors, conventional storage, communication, display technologies). No trace of a slowing down - on the contrary. The central technology - integrated circuits on silicon - drives and depends on the development in the direction of genuine nanotechnology. This accumulated dramatic technology growth must cause the next big revolution: This results in Level 2.
2. The Infrastructure "The Connected Planet": Miniaturization, lower power consumption and wireless technologies allow for connected computation anywhere. Overall connection and the mobile
collaboration of people and devices revolutionizes the space dimension. As a consequence, the Internet has to evolve, too. On the other hand, e-business and technology advances transform the way
how IT value is delivered to customers ("Intelligent Infrastructure"):
Optimized resource allocation drives a utility-like model (e-Utility). A major step in built-in automatism on all levels reduces management costs (Autonomic Computing), and the Internet moves from information delivery to computing and service delivery on a large scale (Grid Computing). The equivalent development on the software and services side means easier integration on all levels - from the user surface through Portals, for services through Web Services, and also via software hubs in the core of the back office.
3. Two major trends in the Business Value are outlined: Large, even very large amounts of data can be analyzed efficiently and allow customer-centric business decisions (harvesting insight). Privacy issues and identity management are key task. Large processing power (often associated with large data sets) enables to model and simulate the behavior of large systems - not only in science and engineering, but also in economy. This allows Continual Optimization, of supply chains, value chains, nationwide car traffic and global business systems. This is mandatory for a sustainable world.
Bio:
Dr. Hehl is currently the content manager of the 'Industry Solutions Labs Zurich'. This Industry Solutions Lab is the European executive briefing center of the Research Division of IBM and a global meeting place of executives and politicians with IBM researchers and consultants.
Dr. Hehl started his career as physicist and development engineer at IBM's development laboratory in Böblingen (Germany) where he was for many years responsible for advanced developments and innovation for systems and software. After a sabbatical year as professor for software technology at the Technical University of Dresden, he became the content manager for IBM's European Industry Solutions Lab, first in Stuttgart (Germany), then directly in the IBM Research Lab Zurich, Switzerland. In this function, he is responsible for the technologies and solutions used to represent actual trends in IBM Research and in the industry.
He holds IBM's 3rd plateau for patent disclosures.
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